The Crypto Brief, Oct. 27: NBA Backs Kalshi and Polymarket

Timing cuts against that message. Polymarket had fired marketing chief Matthew Modabber on Oct. 23, 2026, after a probe tied him to a staged trader-profit promotion². New Jersey's attorney general, Jennifer Davenport, had already told the Supreme Court in September that the whole business skips state law. “Companies like Kalshi claim to offer legal sports betting in all 50 States, but they refuse to follow the gambling laws of any State,” Davenport said³. Her petition leaves that fight exactly where it was.

Dormant Coins Pick a Fight With a Sell Call

CryptoQuant read bitcoin's own ledger on Oct. 27, 2026⁵. The share of bitcoin's value held by coins dormant 18 months or longer slipped from 26.98 percent on Sept. 16 to 26.59 percent. CryptoQuant called that pattern a rally signal. “When the proportion of Bitcoin held for more than 18 months across the entire network rises and then starts to decline, a strong rally follows,” the firm said. “The market has now shifted into a bullish cycle, but we still appear to be in the early stages of the cycle.”

Jason Calacanis read the market differently on Oct. 27, 2026⁶. The technology investor told followers to sell, predicting bitcoin would "revisit $57,000 within the next 12 months" and "never reach another record high." His reasoning skipped bitcoin's own case entirely. “Why put your resources into a dead network that offers nothing beyond a store of value?” Calacanis asked. He disclosed his own stake in the token he prefers. "I am long $TAO and love bittensor's focus on scaling AI," he said.

A Bank, a Fund Manager and a Stablecoin

BlackRock signed a memorandum of understanding with SBI Holdings and Startale Group on Oct. 26, 2026⁷. The three plan to study linking BlackRock's tokenized money fund, BUIDL, with JPYSC, the yen stablecoin SBI launched in June. BUIDL holds about $2.17 billion in Treasurys, repos and cash. Yoshitaka Kitao, SBI's chairman, framed the stakes for Japan. “The shift to onchain finance is becoming an unavoidable global trend. If Japan is to lead this transformation rather than fall behind, we must prepare early and build the foundations for the next generation of financial markets,” Kitao said. The study covers technology, distribution and regulation. Money movement waits on a fund that still needs naming.

A Bot Loses Nine Traders' Money in 94 Seconds

Hackers drained $953,000 from 48 Solana wallets on Oct. 26, 2026⁸. The wallets belonged to nine traders of the Telegram bot Bloom. Emptying all 48 took 94 seconds. Bloom blamed "a remote code execution vulnerability in a third-party module" and said "no private keys had been accessed or compromised." Each drain was still signed with its wallet's own private key, contradicting that account. Five of the emptied wallets had sat dormant since early 2025. Bloom pledged to repay every trader in full.

A Bank's Analysts Cut Coinbase, Spare Circle

Bernstein cut its Coinbase price target to $250 from $330 on Oct. 26, 2026⁹. Analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia trimmed Coinbase's 2026 revenue forecast 32 percent, to $5.5 billion. The analysts now model a full-year loss near $2.60 a share, reversed from an earlier profit estimate. “We no longer assume any bullish crypto price action in our estimates,” the analysts wrote. Robinhood kept its $160 target. Circle alone moved up, to $145 from $140, the one stock of the three still gaining for the year.

Tom Lee Buys ETH and His Own Stock at Once

Bitmine Immersion Technologies bought 10,452 ETH for about $24 million on Oct. 26, 2026¹⁰. Its total holdings reached 6,051,933 ETH, worth roughly $14.3 billion and sitting at 4.95 percent of Ethereum's supply. Bitmine spent another $45.9 million on Oct. 26, 2026, buying back its own shares. That is part of a $399.6 million repurchase program, one Bitmine calls the largest any crypto treasury company has run. Chairman Tom Lee named the pattern he sees underneath the selloff. Ethereum had fallen 13 percent from its recent peak, less than the 20 percent drop in U.S. semiconductor stocks over the same stretch. “We believe this is further evidence that a crypto bull market is underway,” Lee said.

Cathie Wood Trims Bitcoin, Adds Circle

Ark Invest bought 65,615 Circle shares for $5.2 million on Oct. 26, 2026¹¹. Cathie Wood's firm placed the trade inside its Next Generation Internet ETF. On Oct. 26, 2026, Ark sold $15.9 million of its own spot bitcoin ETF from two other funds. Circle's stock had fallen 7.1 percent, to $79.84, with bitcoin trading near $79,625. Ark caps any single holding at 10 percent of a fund, so a stock move this size forces a rebalance on its own.

XRP Shrugs at Its Own Company's Win

Bitcoin traded at $84,459.46 at 8 a.m. EDT on Oct. 27, 2026, up 2.07 percent on the day¹². XRP sat near $1.25 at the same hour. That is down half a percent since midnight UTC, even after Ripple's new bank charter made headlines on Oct. 26, 2026. Analysts at Marex named the reason. "The charter itself creates no requirement to buy XRP," they wrote, pointing to funding rates and open interest that barely moved. A regulatory win and a token's price are two different stories.

A Seed Round Opens US Stocks to Indian Traders

Mochatrade raised $5.5 million on Oct. 26, 2026, led by CoinFund¹³. Coinbase Ventures joined the round. The Y Combinator-backed startup lets Indian users fund accounts through UPI, then trade perpetual contracts tied to stocks like Nvidia, Tesla and Apple. Users skip a brokerage account on either side of that trade. More than 25,000 people have joined its waitlist. Mochatrade expects to leave beta within weeks.

A Payments Startup Chases an IPO and a Lawsuit at Once

RedotPay is weighing a confidential U.S. IPO filing before the end of 2026, Bloomberg reported Oct. 26¹⁴. A pre-IPO round under discussion could value the Hong Kong stablecoin payments company between $4 billion and $5 billion. Binance affiliates sued RedotPay's founders in August for roughly $473 million, claiming they used confidential information to build a rival business. RedotPay denies the claim and says it will contest every count. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Jefferies already advised on an earlier listing attempt that stalled.

What to watch

Watch whether New Jersey's Supreme Court petition gets a hearing date before the NBA's season settles into its own prediction-market routine. Polymarket's next move on its vacant marketing seat will say whether the firing changes its practices or just its roster. CryptoQuant's dormancy signal and Calacanis's sell call describe two different bitcoins, so watch which one the realized-cap share confirms through November. RedotPay's confidential filing, if it lands, will show whether a sued founder can still take a company public this year.

Sources

1. "NBA becomes third league to sign CFTC prediction market pact, taps Kalshi and Polymarket," The Block, Oct. 26, 2026, https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-10-26-nba-cftc-memorandum-of-understanding-prediction-markets-kalshi-polymarket-431764
2. "Polymarket has reportedly fired its marketing chief, also a close friend of the CEO," CoinDesk, Oct. 23, 2026, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/23/polymarket-has-reportedly-fired-its-marketing-chief-also-a-close-friend-of-the-ceo
3. "AG Davenport: SCOTUS Must Resolve States' Authority To Regulate Sports Gambling on Prediction Markets," New Jersey Office of the Attorney General, Sept. 2, 2026, https://www.njoag.gov/ag-davenport-scotus-must-resolve-states-authority-to-regulate-sports-gambling-on-prediction-markets/
4. "NFL Letter On Prediction Markets Says Proposed CFTC Rules 'Fall Significantly Short'," Closing Line, Oct. 20, 2026, https://closingline.substack.com/p/nfl-letter-on-prediction-markets-says-rules-fall-short
5. "Analysis Sees New Bitcoin Bull Market as Older Coins' Realized Cap Share Drops," Cointelegraph, Oct. 27, 2026, https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-analysis-sees-strong-rally-as-old-coins-become-dormant
6. "Investor who called for AI pivot in 2023 says bitcoin is going to $57,000," CoinDesk, Oct. 27, 2026, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/27/investor-who-called-for-ai-pivot-in-2023-says-bitcoin-is-going-to-usd57-000
7. "BlackRock joins SBI and Startale to link tokenized MMFs with Japanese yen stablecoins," The Block, Oct. 26, 2026, https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-26-blackrock-sbi-startale-mou-431642
8. "Bloom Bot Hackers Loot $953K Faster than You Can Microwave Popcorn," Cointelegraph, Oct. 27, 2026, https://cointelegraph.com/news/bloom-bot-hackers-953k-faster-popcorn
9. "Prediction markets and derivatives drive Bernstein's crypto stock outlook for Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle," The Block, Oct. 26, 2026, https://theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-26-prediction-markets-derivatives-drive-bernstein-crypto-stock-outlook-coinbase-robinhood-circle-431750
10. "Tom Lee's Bitmine Keeps Buying Ethereum But Pivots to Record Share Buybacks," Yahoo Finance, Oct. 26, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/tom-lees-bitmine-keeps-buying-153603798.html
11. "Ark Invest buys $5.2 million of Circle shares, sells $15.9 million of its own Bitcoin ETF as BTC grinds lower," The Block, Oct. 27, 2026, https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-27-ark-invest-buys-5-2-million-of-circle-shares-sells-15-9-million-of-its-own-bitcoin-etf-as-btc-grinds-lower-431838
12. "Bitcoin shows signs of weakness while Ripple's bank win fails to bolster XRP," CoinDesk, Oct. 27, 2026, https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/10/27/bitcoin-shows-signs-of-weakness-while-ripple-s-bank-win-fails-to-bolster-xrp
13. "Y Combinator-backed Mochatrade raises $5.5 million to offer US stock perpetuals to Indian traders," The Block, Oct. 26, 2026, https://www.theblock.co/news/deals/2026-10-26-y-combinator-mochatrade-funding-crypto-431775
14. "RedotPay Considers Confidential US IPO Filing by End of 2026," CryptoTimes, Oct. 27, 2026, https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/10/27/redotpay-considers-confidential-us-ipo-filing-by-end-of-2026/