Murad told his followers on Oct. 20 that crypto's "Bull Cycle hasn't even begun yet." He posted that line a day after Bitcoin's ETFs had their best buying day in a week12. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $526.7 million in net new money on Oct. 19, led by BlackRock's IBIT fund.
Bitcoin itself slipped the next day. It traded at $81,730.70 at 19:27 UTC on Oct. 20, down 1.2 percent over 24 hours1.
Money Moved a Day Before Murad's Message
The fund-level numbers show where that $526.7 million actually came from1. BlackRock's IBIT brought in $665.2 million on its own. Fidelity's FBTC gave back $83.6 million. Grayscale's GBTC gave back $54.9 million. One fund did the heavy lifting, and two others pulled the other way.
October had been a rough month before Monday. Calculations from Farside's daily totals, cited by crypto.news, put the month's cumulative net outflow at $614.7 million through Oct. 161. Monday's inflow cut that shortfall to $88 million through Oct. 19. The month still ran negative. It just ran far less negative, three days before Murad's post went up.
BlackRock's IBIT Alone Topped Bitcoin ETFs' $526.7 Million Inflow, Oct. 19
Net money into or out of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, in millions of dollars, Oct. 19, 2026
Source: crypto.news [1].
Read the chart as a table
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| All US spot ETFs, net inflow | $526.7M |
| BlackRock's IBIT, inflow | $665.2M |
| Fidelity's FBTC, outflow | $83.6M |
| Grayscale's GBTC, outflow | $54.9M |
Who Murad Is, and What He Told His Followers
Murad posts as a memecoin investor on X, under the handle @MustStopMurad1. He has spent past cycles arguing crypto's biggest gains still lie ahead of most traders. His Oct. 20 post kept that same message short. "The Crypto Bull Cycle hasn't even begun yet," he wrote. He left out both a price target and a date.
The post traveled fast. By that evening it had drawn about 66,000 views, 1,500 likes and 329 replies. Crypto.news counted 240 reposts too, in its capture of the post1. Murad gave his readers a verdict. He left the reasoning for others to supply.
A Bull Case Built on Fewer Wild Swings
Ki Young Ju, CryptoQuant's founder, argues the bull case differently than Murad does4. He expects this cycle to grow at a calmer pace than earlier ones did. “I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3-5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market,” Ki wrote in a note crypto.news published on Sept. 23.
His reasoning rests on who owns Bitcoin now. The timing of any single post matters far less. Bigger institutional holdings smooth out the swings retail trading used to cause, in his account. Giving up the sharpest rally also means giving up the sharpest crash, by his own math.
Three on-chain signals back his case, apart from any single post4. Bitcoin's realized capitalization keeps climbing, a sign long-term holders keep adding to their stacks. Its MVRV ratio, which compares the market's value to what current holders paid, has held above one through the pullback. Whale wallets have sold less this cycle than during the 2018 or 2021 downturns, on Ki's own reading of the data. Ki's case and Murad's message point the same direction. They rest on different evidence entirely.
History's Case Against an Early Call
Binance Research checked that direction against the record. Its study, covered Oct. 5, looked at seven times since 2011. Each time, Bitcoin had climbed at least 40 percent off a cycle low while still sitting 25 percent below its old record1. Five of those rebounds followed drawdowns of 30 percent to 38 percent. Four of the five broke back below their old lows within 43 days. Only the July 2021 case held.
The two rebounds that skipped a new low entirely followed much deeper declines. One fell 75.5 percent in April 2019, and the other 67.1 percent in January 20231. Both went on to new highs. Shallow drawdowns, in Binance Research's own sample, mostly failed to hold.
4 of 7 Bitcoin Rebounds Since 2011 Broke to New Lows, Binance Research Found
Outcomes of seven Bitcoin rebounds of 40% or more that stayed 25% below the record, 2011 to 2023
- Broke below its old low: 4
- Held, later set a new high: 3
Source: crypto.news [1].
Read the chart as a table
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Broke below its old low | 4 |
| Held, later set a new high | 3 |
| Whole | 7 |
Glassnode's derivatives data added a second caution the same week1. Futures open interest slipped from $36.5 billion to $36.4 billion. Selling pressure on exchanges eased, though sellers still held the edge.
Long-side funding payments rose from $1.1 million to $1.6 million, a sign traders paid more to bet on higher prices1.
Perpetual futures cumulative volume delta, a gauge of whether buyers or sellers dominate trading, improved from negative $891.1 million to negative $562.7 million1. Sellers still outweighed buyers on spot exchanges, just by less.
Rekt Capital, a crypto trader and analyst, read the week's chart the same cautious way3. Bitcoin's weekly close had slipped below the $82,200 zone that marked its May 2026 high. “Such a Weekly Close would position Bitcoin for a potential bearish retest of ~$82500 into new resistance. And if that bearish retest occurs successfully then it could set price up for a drop below $80k within the next few weeks,” Rekt Capital wrote, in comments Cointelegraph published Oct. 19.
Two Reads of the Same Three Days
Bitcoin's own distance from its highs cuts against a simple reading either way. The coin's record sits near $126,080, set Oct. 6, 2025, according to Crypto Briefing6. It fell as low as about $58,000 during the summer of 2026, before this run began. At $81,730.70, Bitcoin sat well above that low and far under its record.
A separate asset manager, Hashdex, told CoinDesk that Bitcoin's current bear phase had already run 359 days as of Sept. 30. The previous three downturns since 2011 ran longer: 361, 377 and 411 days5. Short-term holders, the traders quickest to sell into a dip, hold just 16 percent of Bitcoin's supply. That share is the lowest since January 2023, by Hashdex's own count. Hashdex said Bitcoin needed to clear $84,000 before the Federal Reserve's Oct. 27 and 28 meeting to show renewed momentum.
Murad's post asked his followers to trust that the biggest move still waits ahead. The fund flows, the chart levels and Hashdex's own marker will answer that question long before another post does.
By the numbers
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $526.7 million in net new money on Oct. 19, 2026, led by BlackRock's IBIT fund's $665.2 million1.
- Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's GBTC gave back $83.6 million and $54.9 million the same day1.
- October's cumulative ETF flow improved from a $614.7 million net outflow through Oct. 16 to just $88 million through Oct. 191.
- Bitcoin traded at $81,730.70 at 19:27 UTC on Oct. 20, 2026, down 1.2 percent over 24 hours1.
- Murad's post drew about 66,000 views, 1,500 likes and 329 replies by that evening1.
- Binance Research's study of seven past Bitcoin rebounds found four broke below their old lows within 43 days1.
- CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju expects this cycle to deliver three to five times gains, short of a ten-times parabolic run4.
- Short-term holders owned just 16 percent of Bitcoin's supply by Hashdex's count, the lowest share since January 20235.
What to watch
Farside's daily ETF tallies, cited by crypto.news, will show whether the week's buying outlasts Monday's jump1. A weekly close above the $82,500 zone Rekt Capital flagged would undercut his bearish retest call. Dropping below $80,000 would support it instead3. The Federal Reserve meets Oct. 27 and 28, and Hashdex says Bitcoin needs to clear $84,000 before then to show renewed momentum5.
Sources
- Lawrence Mondal, "Murad says crypto bull cycle has yet to begin as Bitcoin holds near $82K," crypto.news, Oct. 20, 2026, https://crypto.news/murad-crypto-bull-cycle-bitcoin-etf-flows/
- Murad, Post on X, Oct. 20, 2026, https://x.com/MustStopMurad/status/2112527077840982404
- William Suberg, "Bitcoin Weekly Close Slips From Support Zone as Tech Stocks Eye Recovery," Cointelegraph, Oct. 19, 2026, https://cointelegraph.com/markets/stocks-rebound-into-key-tech-earnings-three-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week
- Olivia Stephanie, "Bitcoin bull cycle could gain 3-5x, CryptoQuant CEO says," crypto.news, Sept. 23, 2026, https://crypto.news/bitcoin-bull-cycle-could-gain-3-to-5x/
- Shaurya Malwa, "Bitcoin hovers around $83,000 as AI earnings revive tech, ZEC jumps 11%," CoinDesk, Oct. 21, 2026, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/21/bitcoin-hovers-around-usd83-000-as-ai-earnings-revive-tech-zec-jumps-11
- "Bitcoin sits 32% below its $126,000 record one year later," Crypto Briefing (via TradingView), Oct. 6, 2026, https://www.tradingview.com/news/cryptobriefing:afbfca754094b:0-bitcoin-sits-32-below-its-126-000-record-one-year-later/